# Confluences

Stronger reads come from pairing relative performance with macro/market structure.

* **Trend filters:** Long MAs or market breadth to confirm leadership persistence.
* **Volatility:** VIX/term structure—leadership under falling vol tends to persist.
* **Credit & Rates:** HYG vs. TLT vs. SPY triangles often clarify risk regimes.
* **Seasonality/Flows:** Month-/Quarter-turn effects can amplify base-relative shifts.
* **Liquidity:** Rising M2 alongside equity leadership strengthens risk-on narratives.