Framework

CRT Model Framework

A quick reminder helps you stay disciplined.

• Don’t shotgun it: Trying to trade every instance will fail over time.

• Work from a higher-timeframe bias: Build bias by either:

  • Framing inside a higher-timeframe CRT Model: Map the larger structure and execute within it.

  • Using supporting concepts: Price phases, equilibrium (0.5), and decisive candle closes to set and confirm direction.

Bottom line: The pattern is mechanical—your edge is context.

Top-Down Analysis

This workflow keeps bias, plan, and entries speaking the same language.

Higher timeframe sets direction (1D / 1W / 1M)

Start with the daily, weekly, or monthly—whatever fits your style—to define bias. Do this by mapping a higher-timeframe CRT Model you’ll trade inside, or by using price phases, equilibrium, and strong closes to lock in direction.

Intermediate timeframe builds the plan (4H / 1H)

Drop to 4H/1H to validate bias and sketch structure. Look for a Change in the State of Delivery (CISD), mark points of interest (POIs) that align with bias, and wait for proof at the level—a reaction, decisive close, or a protected swing.

Lower timeframe executes with precision (15M / 5M)

Use 15M/5M to refine entries and improve R:R. After the intermediate reaction/close, require a confirming CISD so all timeframes agree. Trigger on new protected highs/lows or continuation order blocks (OBs), place stops beyond the protected high/low, and target higher-timeframe objectives.

Expansion Candles

Set expectations so you don’t fight the tape.

• Shallow pullbacks, fast legs: Expansions retrace lightly and move with intent.

• Half-range tendency: Bullish expansions operate in the upper half; bearish in the lower half.

• Context first: Trade with the HTF bias, not every isolated print.

Phases of Price

Label where you are so your actions stay consistent.

• Reversal: Initial turn that shifts delivery.

• Expansion: Impulsive leg in the new direction.

• Retracement: Pause/pullback—often shallow in expansions.

• Consolidation: Range digestion before the next leg.

Mean / Equilibrium (0.5)

Use the midpoint to keep bias simple and objective.

Understanding the Mean

During expansions, pullbacks are usually shallow—treat 0.5 as the midline:

• Hold upper half → bias higher.

• Hold lower half → bias lower.

• If the respected half fails, flip bias and look for the opposite side of the range.

Applying the Mean in Expansions

In bullish expansions, the upper half often acts as support; in bearish expansions, the lower half often acts as resistance. If that behavior breaks, reassess your bias.

Candle Wicks

Wicks often carry the signal; bodies tell the story after the fact.

What they indicate

• Lower wick: Drive down bought back up → bullish hint.

• Upper wick: Drive up sold back down → bearish hint.

• Strong reversal wicks often print a clear “V” on lower timeframes.

The 50% rule of a wick

Mark the wick midpoint (body→high for upper wick, body→low for lower wick):

• Respect: Holding the wick’s 0.5 favors continuation against the wick’s direction (lower-wick → up; upper-wick → down).

• Disrespect: Closing through the wick’s 0.5 often invalidates it and continues the original impulse.

Prioritize wicks that tag an FVG or sweep a key high/low; de-prioritize wicks formed entirely inside noisy internal ranges.

Trading Candle 2 (The Reversal)

Use Candle 2’s wick, body, and context to judge whether the next leg trends or mean-reverts.

Expansion vs. reversal

• Expansion candle: Small wicks, strong body, one-way momentum.

• Reversal (Candle 2): Drives opposite, prints a long opposing wick, closes near open—context decides if it’s tradable.

Key idea: Small wicks favor continued expansion; large wicks often cap expansion because the range was “spent” building the wick.

Why wick size matters

• Small-wick reversal: More “runway”—target prior highs/lows, liquidity pools, standard-deviation projections.

• Large-wick reversal: Range consumed—expect mean-reversion toward the open or session extremes.

Think of wick size as a fuel gauge: less wick → more potential.

Correlated markets & SMT

Use related instruments for confirmation. If one market sits at a clean reversal but a correlated market is clearly stronger/weaker, prioritize the one that aligns with your bias to avoid false CISD and improve signal quality.

Candle 2 takeaways

• Small wick → more expansion potential.

• Large wick → tighter targets; continuations often follow the next day after a large-wick reversal.

• Always size expectations by wick size and session context.

Trading Candle 3 (The Continuation)

Candle 2 flips bias; Candle 3 aims to capture the follow-through (Candle 4 often offers secondary continuation).

The key concept: wick size & expansion

Wick size on Candle 2 decides the play:

• Small wick → you can trade Candle 2 directly.

• Large wick → let Candle 2 close and trade Candle 3 instead.

When Candle 3 isn’t ideal

Avoid chasing weak continuations:

• If Candle 2 already expanded hard, Candle 3 can become a chase into retrace/chop.

• Demand extra LTF confluence: protected swings, SMT divergence, and multiple continuation cues aligning.

Candle 3 takeaways

• Wick size decides Candle 2 vs. Candle 3.

• Confirm with CISD, FVG/OB, and protected swings.

• Don’t chase after a big Candle 2—wait for alignment.

Lead with context, not the pattern: set a clear higher-timeframe bias, then sync the intermediate and lower timeframes to it. Let equilibrium (0.5) and the C-area define where you expect reactions or follow-through, and time entries with CISD, wick-50% respect, and PD arrays—if alignment breaks, respect the invalidation and wait for the next clean continuation.