Statuses

Turtle Soup Model Statuses

The Turtle Soup Model follows a well-defined lifecycle, outlining its current state and determining if a trade opportunity is valid.

The lifecycle consists of four phases:

• Formation

• Pre-Invalidation

• Invalidation

• Success

The current status of the model will become visible when you hover your cursor over the associated label (e.g., C1, R1, H1).

1. Formation

The Formation phase marks the beginning of the Turtle Soup setup. During this phase, the model identifies key components that suggest a potential reversal, such as:

• Sweeps: Price moves that capture liquidity, often above or below significant swing points, signaling potential trend shifts.

• Market Structure Shift (MSS): A structural shift that indicates a potential change in market direction.

Once identified, the model calculates Projections and Liquidity Levels, providing insight into potential price movements and the overall market bias.

The lower timeframe PD Arrays are essential for model formation. In the absence of a LTF PD Array, the model is considered low probability and will not be formed.

2. Pre-Invalidation

In the Pre-Invalidation phase, the model is considered at risk of failing. This occurs when the price moves above the sweep high but the sweep itself remains intact (not fully broken). In this case:

• The model is viewed as unreliable but not yet fully invalidated.

• The sweep high remains significant, indicating the setup may still be valid, but it’s close to being invalidated.

Most setups in this phase do not lead to success, as the market often reverses, and the original trade setup becomes less reliable.

3. Invalidation

The Invalidation phase occurs when key conditions for the setup are not met, signaling that the trade idea is no longer valid. The model is invalidated if:

• The price fails to reach the 2 Standard Deviation level.

• The price doesn’t hit the first identified liquidity level.

• The price breaks above the sweep high.

When the model is invalidated, it is crucial for traders to abandon the setup, as the trade no longer aligns with the expected price behavior.

4. Success

The Success phase happens when the trade setup aligns with the expected market movement, confirming that the model is valid. Success is reached when:

• The price reaches the 2 Standard Deviation level.

• The price hits the first identified SSL/BSL liquidity level.

At this point, the model’s predictions are confirmed, and traders can execute the trade with higher confidence.

By understanding the Formation, Pre-Invalidation, Invalidation, and Success phases, traders can effectively manage positions and capitalize on high-probability setups identified by the Turtle Soup Model.

This structured approach helps reduce risk and increases the likelihood of successful trades.